In the short-term in the near term, in the short term, United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will definitely have ripple effects throughout the world. While it won’t be a fatal blow to it, rather than destroying the Paris Agreement, it will likely spur other nations to reiterate their firm commitment to complete implementation of the climate agreement.
We’re already witnessing this impact in the coming agreement with the EU and China on energy and climate, focused on increasing ambitions under the Paris Agreement.
At the White House Rose Garden, US President Donald Trump said that he would like to begin with a renegotiation to determine “if there’s a better deal”.
“If we are able to, great. If we don’t, it’s acceptable,” he added.
The Kyoto Protocol has not taught us anything through the Kyoto Protocol
With the context of the announcement today, a few may be tempted to make a comparison to the Kyoto Protocol. Kyoto Protocol, which President George W. Bush famously disapproved of at his White House Rose Garden, in response to the pressure of fossil fuel companies, particularly Exxon.
The lessons learned from this analogy are not a boon to US. United States. While the Kyoto Protocol was not a success because it did not meet its full potential due to the US’s absence from the process, those countries that took part in its implementation failed to meet the emission reduction targets they set for themselves, but they are far better placed today to benefit of the inevitable transition to a carbon-free future.
In the wake of the Kyoto commitment, The European Union’s legal climate policy framework has become the most extensive and broad around the globe. It is now clear that the EU now has all the tools to meet the more ambitious goals that is needed.
The objectives and goals for EU environmental policies according to year and sector Source: European Environment Agency
In the wake of the Kyoto lessons, China, Korea, Mexico, Chile and other developing nations are currently setting up systems for trading emissions that can provide emissions reductions that are cost-effective in the future.
The choice of to use the Rose Garden for this second announcement The Trump White House is only emphasizing that the lessons of previous mistakes might have been learned.
The US might be a victim of the American Revolution.
In 2017, the world is an entirely different one from the one that used to be in 2001. In 1997, at the time it was the year that Kyoto Protocol was adopted, the US represented 19% of world Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and 20 percent of the global economy (measured by GDP MER) in comparison to China was responsible for just 12percent and 7 percent and 7%, respectively. In 2015, the year that there was a change in the Paris Agreement was adopted, China had risen to become the world’s largest emitter (23 percent) and also the biggest economy (17 17 percent) and the USA being responsible for a smaller share globally in emissions (13 percent) and a lower percentage of the global economy (16 percent).
India is a powerhouse that was rising in the 21st century and has almost doubled its economic importance over the course of this time (from 4 percent to 77% of the world’s economy). The two countries China as well as India are currently embracing the opportunities of the future, and are trying to limit their emission paths while also growing their economies, and creating a plethora of green jobs by huge investments in renewable energy as well as plans to transition to electric automobiles at the end of the decade.